2025 WATER YEAR – A Race to the Bottom

Well, another year has come and gone with a weird winter of early drought and 3 early rain (up to 10,000 feet) and runoff cycles but some good storms that made it an average or normal year in the end, even though it didn’t feel that way.  Normal is just the average of several extreme events.  The mean is defined by the ends or the outliers.  After a wet spring, summer came and went with less than an inch of rain in just two storm cycles in Park City and 1.6 inches average in the state.  Dry as a popcorn fart.  Now that autumn is here the understory is giving up the ghost early with no discernable color and the maples are turning brown unless they are in the creek bottoms or on a shady, wet north face.  The aspens are giving up early and It remains to be seen if Bonanza Flats goes orange-red like it usually does.  I doubt it.  More like sepia-brown.

So, what does I look like for the great Salt Lake and the Colorado River, the two poster boys of water in the west along with the Klamath that has Native Americans and Salmon fighting with our farmers and people.   I have not seen the local usage charts they usually show on TV because water use has been elevated to embarrassing levels.  Utah’s reservoir levels are showing a drastic decline. Since June 1, the state has drawn down reservoirs at double the normal rate.

In August 2025, the Great Salt Lake is at a historically scary, low level of 4191.3 dropping nearly 2 feet this year already, towards the record-low point of a catastrophic 4188.5, reached in 2022, due to increased demand for water and a very dry summer. Another 2-foot drop is expected by the end of the calendar year.  Peak level in 1986 was 4211.5 before they started pumping it out to the west desert for evaporation.  The average level is 4202 feet.  State officials were particularly concerned about the approaching seasonal low this fall, which could further expose the lakebed, increase air quality issues from dust, harm the ecosystem, and negatively impact the brine shrimp fishing industry. A warm, dry winter is forecast, raising alarm among advocates as significant snowfall is crucial for the lake's recovery.  

In 2022 they made some progress in addressing this issue, including fasting and praying, but then we had a big winer and it was put on the back burner behind gerrymandering, abortion and gun rights.  They had talked about paying farmers not to grow but they need 8 million acre-feet (MAF) to get the lake to a reasonable level of 4198 but that proved too expensive.  They could give all Water Rights holders a 10-20% haircut for the Public Welfare, natural stream environment and recreational opportunities stipulated in the law but that would be political suicide and probably not enough water.  The Utah River Council is suing the State for ignoring Public Welfare and they have precedence in the Mono Lake lawsuit where LA had to give water back to the lake for the public good.  The new plan is to dry up the North half of the lake and drain the water to the south end to submerge the toxic dust, but the north end has all the wildlife and bird migration areas.

The Colorado River flow in 2025 is predicted to be below average, with forecasts from August 2025 indicating the most probable unregulated inflow to Lake Powell will be around 50% of the long-term average.  Early 2025 forecasts showed potential inflow of 81% normal, but dry conditions have since reduced these projections. The typical 25-50 foot, or 2-3 MAF, annual spring bump in Lake Powell level was barely 5 feet, or 1 MAF, this year at elevation 3550.  Lake elevation is predicted to drop to 3520 by next spring’s runoff, only 30 feet or a bad year above the minimum Power Pool elevation, and only 150 feet or 5 MAF, or a bad decade above Dead Pool outlet level. 

There are contractual adjustments that could be made or additional releases from upstream reservoirs like Flaming George to postpone the catastrophe, but it seems inevitable to me.  The overall trend for The River is one of decreasing inflow due to drought and rising temperatures.  Climate Change, ground water depletion and increasing demand, overallocation and disagreements between the upper and lower basin states have plagued The River for years.  Renegotiation of the Colorado River Compact of 1922 is expected next year that should address a river that has been flowing 5 MAF a year lately instead of the 17 MAF originally assumed.  The low-level outlet plumbing at Glen Canyon should be enlarged immediately to maintain some control of flows in the Grand Canyon and allow for compliance with the Colorado Compact of 2022.   All we can do about it is to pray for snow, stop growing grass and reduce fossil fuels.    It is The Tragedy of the Commons vs Game Theory when competing for limited resources.  Cooperation and community are the answers.